Publications/Forthcoming
Hobolt, S.; Lawall, K. & Tilley, J. 2023. The Polarizing Effect of Partisan Echo Chambers. American Political Science Review. 1-16. doi: 10.1017/S0003055423001211
Abstract: We are witnessing increasing partisan polarization across the world. It is often argued that partisan ‘echo chambers’ are one of the drivers of both policy and affective polarization. In this paper, we develop and test the argument that the political homogeneity of people’s social environment shapes polarization. Using an innovative, large-scale pre-registered ‘lab-in-the-field’ experiment in the UK, we examine how polarization is influenced by partisan group homogeneity. We recruit nationally-representative partisans and assign them to discuss a salient policy issue, either with like-minded partisans (an echo chamber) or in a mixed partisan group. This allows us to examine how group composition affects polarization. In line with our expectations, we find that partisan echo chambers increase both policy and affective polarization compared to mixed discussion groups. This has important implications for our understanding of the drivers of polarization and for how outgroup animosity might be ameliorated in the mass public.
Lawall, K., Turnbull-Dugarte, S. J., Foos, F. and Townsley, J. (2025) Negative Political Identities and Costly Political Action. The Journal of Politics, 87 (1). pp. 291-305. doi: 10.1086/730718
Available online: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/730718
Abstract: Elite and mass level politics in many Western democracies is increasingly characterised by the expression of negative feelings towards political out-groups. While the existence of these feelings is well-documented, there is little evidence on the consequences of activating political identities during election campaigns. We test whether fundraising emails containing negative or positive political identity cues lead party supporters to donate money via a large pre-registered digital eld experiment conducted in collaboration with a British political party. We find that emails containing negative as opposed to positive identity cues lead to a higher number and frequency of donations. We also find that negative identity cues were only effective when paired with an issue identity rather than a traditional party identity cue, resulting in a 15% increase in the probability of donating over the untreated control. Our results provide novel experimental evidence on the behavioural effects of activating identities in real-world political campaigns.
Lawall, K., Michalaki, K. and Tsakiris, M. Angry losers? The (null) effects of feeling electoral loss on anti-democratic attitudes. Accepted/Forthcoming at European Journal of Political Research.
Abstract: Peaceful transfers of power are a fundamental principle of democracy. Yet, in times of heightened affective polarization, election losses may trigger strong negative emotional reactions in partisans, which in turn undermine support for fundamental democratic principles among partisans. We test this idea through two pre-registered survey experiments conducted after the 2022 and 2024 elections in the United States. We randomly assign partisans to receive either a placebo or an emotive reminder about the election that their party lost, containing others’ angry or worried reactions at the election outcome. Contrary to our pre-registered expectations, we do not find evidence that priming negative feelings about electoral loss affects support for political violence or democratic norms. Emotive reminders about salient political events can momentarily turn up the heat on politics, but are not enough to propel partisans to adopt extreme anti-democratic attitudes. By linking the study of emotions to democratic norms, this article contributes to our understanding of when negative emotions (fail to) radicalize partisans.
Grahn, M., Lawall, K., Mainz, S., Nordbrandt, M. and Turnbull-Dugarte, S. J. (2025) A game of tariffs: is there demand for tariffs in Europe? Journal of European Public Policy. ISSN 1466-4429 doi: 10.1080/13501763.2025.2571062. Available online at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13501763.2025.2571062#d1e559
Selected working papers
Lawall, K.; Baron, D.; Hammoud-Gallego, O. & Pereira, M. Can support networks increase women’s progressive political ambition? A field experiment with local politicians.
Abstract: Once in office, women politicians are less likely to seek re-election. Yet, the causes and potential remedies for this gender gap in political retention are still poorly understood. We argue that women politicians are more likely to feel isolated and to lack the necessary support networks to navigate the challenges of holding public office. In a field experiment with a civil society organization, we test whether inviting women councillors in the UK to join a real cross-partisan support network of women councillors reduces the gender gap in political retention. We find that women councillors invited to join the peer support network are 10 percentage points more likely to express interest in running for re-election. Semi-structured interviews suggest that this effect is driven in part by shaping perceptions of isolation in office and peer support. The effects do not spillover to progressive political ambition. The study reveals that efforts to promote women’s representation would benefit from focusing not only on selection but also on retention of women in politics.
Lawall, K., Versteegen, P., and Tsakiris, M. How Does Affective Polarization Feel? A Comparative Description.
Pre-print available online: https://osf.io/xym8z_v1
Abstract: Affective polarization has become a central concept to explain how citizens think and behave in Western democracies. However, while research made great progress studying the causes, consequences, and remedies of this concept, we know surprisingly little about how affective polarization actually feels. This research note contributes to recent efforts to characterize affective polarization with specific emotions. Drawing on cross-sectional data from five European countries (Denmark, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the UK; total N= 4,794, we analyze which emotions respondents report to experience toward in-party and out-party voters, and which of these emotions correlate with affective polarization scores. While we find that only few respondents report negative emotions toward in-party voters, they feel moderate amounts of hope, enthusiasm, and pride without being exuberant. Fear-related emotions toward out-party voters are rare, and while one in five respondents experiences extreme anger, disappointment, or disgust toward opponents, up to 50\% experience these emotions just slightly or not at all. The emotions most consistently related to affective polarization are positive emotions toward in-party voters and—to a lesser extent—aversion, hate, and disgust toward opponents. We describe patterns across countries and demographic backgrounds and highlight a practical implication: affective polarization feels more positive than what prevailing notions of “fear and loathing'” let believe.
Lawall, K. Gender-immigration messages: How women’s rights are used to normalize anti-immigration views.
Pre-print available online: https://osf.io/5w48g
Abstract: How do extreme political views become acceptable? We argue that when previously unacceptable positions are ‘normatively framed’ as a defense of liberal democratic values, voters will find the position more acceptable. We examine this at the example of gender-immigration messages: statements using women’s rights to justify anti-immigration claims. Gender-immigration messages should make anti-immigration views and parties more acceptable. To test this, we conduct survey experiments, varying whether respondents are exposed to a gender-immigration message, an immigration message, a gender message, or no message. We find that normative framing increases the acceptability of anti-immigration views among all voters (in Norway) and among women, compared to men (in Germany). However, we do not find effects of gender-immigration messages on radical right support or the direct expression of anti-immigrant views. These findings have important implications for our understanding of normative framing as a powerful legitimizing device.
Lawall, K. “Mobilising migrants: how effective are online interventions in increasing political participation among immigrants?“
In Europe today, there is still a large gap in political participation between
immigrants and native citizens. For example, although mobile EU citizens (EU citizens residing outside their home country) have the right to vote in local elections in their country of residence, they often do not participate in these elections. These gaps in participation matter, as they can exacerbate existing political inequalities. This research project explores if social media interventions (Facebook groups and pages) are effective in increasing the political participation of mobile EU citizens. The project tests this through a field experiment carried out with local civil society partner organisations in the run up to local elections in Germany.
Dr Katharina Lawall 